Source of China's construction steel export quantity data

Steel pipe support construction waste is piled up and buried near the city, trapped in a "garbage siege" situation, not only occupying land, but also containing various harmful chemicals, severely eroding the surface and polluting groundwater sources, posing great harm to the human living environment.

In terms of round steel inventory, the social inventory in Guangzhou continued to decline this week. As of May 20th, the inventory of building materials in the sample warehouse was 1.6404 million tons, a decrease of 120200 tons from last week (176.06 tons) and an increase of 314200 tons from the same period last year (1.3262 million tons). Among them, the inventory of threaded steel was 1.1663 million tons, a decrease of 72200 tons from last week (1.2385 million tons), and the inventory of wire rods and coils was 474100 tons, a decrease of 48000 tons from last week (522100 tons). Overall, the current market demand is slowing down, and the rate of decline in social inventory is also slowing down. Although the willingness of local steel mills to raise prices has not weakened, it is difficult to predict whether the shipment volume can support high prices. It is expected that prices in the Guangzhou market may adjust next week. 2、 Cost analysis 1. Price adjustment by steel mills this week. Domestic steel mills have mainly increased their ex factory prices this week. As the weekend approaches, the acceptance of high-level resources by end-users is low, and some steel mills have slightly lowered their ex factory prices. With the official convening of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, macro policies are gradually becoming clearer, and steel mills may encounter certain obstacles in transferring costs through price increases. 2. Domestic raw material prices continued to rise this week, with a significant increase in steel billet prices, the second round of coke price increases being basically implemented in the market, and iron concentrate powder rising due to the impact of imported minerals. From a variety perspective: Steel billet market: Stimulated by environmental protection restrictions imposed by some steel companies in Tangshan, the ex factory price of steel billets increased significantly by 70 yuan over the weekend, and continued to rise by 30 yuan/ton this week; However, after the price increase, the market acceptance has significantly decreased, and the price of steel billets has shown a decline later this week. Considering the recent significant price increase and the difficulty for downstream demand to keep up, it is expected that there will be some adjustment in the domestic steel billet market next week. Coke market: The overall domestic coke market has been on the rise this week. This week, the second increase in coke prices has been basically implemented, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. Due to the reduction of production capacity by coke enterprises in Shandong Province, and the environmental impact on Xiaoyi in Shanxi and Hejin, coke enterprises have been restricted by about 30-40% in production. Recently, the operating rate of domestic coke enterprises has slightly fallen, and coke enterprises have been able to ship smoothly with low inventory. The bullish sentiment of coke enterprises is high, and some coke enterprises in Shanxi have already started the third round of price increase requirements.

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Steel plates with angle steel thickness less than 15mm and greater than 150mm or yield strength greater than 500MPa shall be negotiated separately when ordering;? The anti laminar tearing performance of steel plates is evaluated by the cross-sectional shrinkage rate of the thickness direction tensile test Steel grade and technical requirements 3) The scope and grade of steel are generally applicable to the production of steel plates for high-rise buildings with a thickness of 6-100mm, divided into 2 strength levels and 4 grades. The grade is composed of the Pinyin letter (Q) representing the yield point, the numerical value of the yield point, the Chinese Pinyin letter (GJ) for high-rise buildings, and the symbols for quality grades (C, D, E). The suffix letter "Z" is added to the thickness direction performance steel plate. The four grades are Q235GJ, Q235GJZ, Q345GJ, and Q345GJZ. Steel plates for bridge structures (GB/T714-2000) There are three grades of steel for bridge structures: Q235q, Q345q, Q370q, Q420q, with quality grades of C, D, and E. What are the classification codes for hot-rolled H-beams and sectional T-beams? Wide flange H-beam - HW (W stands for Wide in English)? H-shaped steel with a middle flange - HM (where M is the Middle prefix)? Narrow flange H-beam - HN (N stands for Narrow in English)? Wide winged T-shaped steel - TW (W stands for Wide in English)? T-section steel with split middle flange - TM (where M is the Middle prefix)? Narrow flange section T-section steel - TN (N is Narrow in English) hot-rolled H-beam and partial T-section steel specification marking method Height H x Width B x Web thickness t1 x Wing thickness t2, for example: HW100 x 100 x 6 x 8; TN125 × 60 × 6 × 8..

Domestic steel pipe enterprises often choose white, blue, and red colors, and rarely choose brown, black, or multiple color combinations. This is due to the trend of aesthetic consciousness among social groups, as well as the problem of monotonous colors in domestically produced boards, the aesthetic issues of design engineers, and the subjective and arbitrary problems of owners. 4. Architectural changes: Small scale buildings designed by foreign companies often draw on the architectural style of small-scale concrete buildings, including the decoration and expression methods of concrete buildings, in pursuit of architectural style. Although small in scale, the diversity of changes makes small-scale buildings exhibit a dynamic architectural style. However, domestic enterprises, which are mostly square buildings, do lack changes..

2) Non destructive testing should be carried out on welded ball joints, and their quality should meet the design requirements. When there are no design requirements, they should meet the second level quality standards specified in the "Code for Acceptance of Construction Quality of Steel Structures" GB50205. The inspection quantity: 5% of each specification should be randomly checked according to the quantity, and there should be no less than 3 welded ball joints. The inspection should be carried out in accordance with the current industry standard "Ultrasonic Testing and Quality Grading Method for Welded Ball Node Steel Grid Welds" JG/T3034.1. 3) Welded ball joints should be welded into test specimens according to the specified specifications of the ball and its matching steel pipe, and subjected to axial tensile and compressive bearing capacity tests. The test failure load value is greater than or equal to 1.6 times the design bearing capacity to be qualified. Inspection quantity: Take 600 welding balls of the same specification with the most unfavorable stress in each project as one batch. If there are less than 600 balls, they will still be counted as one batch. Take 3 balls from each batch as a random sampling group. (6) Bolt Ball 1) The types, specifications, and performance of the raw materials used for bolt balls and the manufacturing of bolt ball joints should comply with current national product standards and design requirements. 2) The bolt ball must not have excessive burning, cracks, or wrinkles. Inspection quantity: 5% of each specification should be randomly inspected, and there should be no less than 5 pieces. 3) Bolt ball joints should undergo tensile strength guarantee load tests according to the maximum bolt hole thread specified in the design specifications. When the design bearing capacity of the bolt is reached, the screw hole, thread, and sealing plate are still intact and qualified. Inspection quantity: Take 600 welding balls of the same specification with the most unfavorable stress in each project as one batch. If there are less than 600 balls, they will still be counted as one batch. Take 3 balls from each batch as a random sampling group. (7) The tensile strength of the connection weld between the steel pipe of the truss member and the sealing plate or cone head should comply with the current industry standards "Steel Grid Bolt Ball Node" JG10 or "Quality Inspection and Evaluation Standard for Grid Structure Engineering" JGJ78. Inspection quantity: Take the tie rod with the most unfavorable force, with 300 rods of the same specification as one batch. If there are less than 300 rods, they will still be counted as one batch. Three rods will be randomly selected from each batch for inspection.

It cannot be ruled out that after reaching 5500-6000, steel prices will gradually decline as demand slowly falls. normalbackground-color:ffffff，? =””normalbackground-color:ffffff，? =Specifically, the annual trend of steel prices can be roughly divided into five stages: normal background color: ffffff,? =””normalbackground-color:ffffff，? =The stage is from the beginning of the year to mid March, when steel prices continued to rise due to the country's crackdown on medium frequency furnaces and "ground steel", as well as strong downstream demand, normalbackground-color:ffffff，? =””normalbackground-color:ffffff，? =The second stage is from mid March to early April, during which the government intensively introduced real estate regulation policies, leading to a pessimistic outlook on steel demand and a period of consolidation after prices fell, normalbackground-color:ffffff，? =””normalbackground-color:ffffff，? =The third stage is from early April to mid September, during which the macroeconomic performance is good and pessimistic expectations are corrected. At the same time, the supply gap caused by the clearance of medium frequency furnaces and "ground steel" is gradually emerging, and steel prices continue to rise. normalbackground-color:ffffff，? =””normalbackground-color:ffffff，? =The fourth stage is from mid September to early November. The macro data released for August fell short of expectations, and the demand outlook was once again questioned, causing steel prices to fall and consolidate. normalbackground-color:ffffff，? =””normalbackground-color:fff。

Table 1: Production data of threaded steel from 139 construction steel production enterprises nationwide. Data source: Shanghai Steel Union Steel Division. Figure 3: Capacity utilization rate of threaded steel from 139 construction steel production enterprises nationwide. Data source: Shanghai Steel Union Steel Division. With the adjustment of prices in place and the implementation of winter storage policies by some steel mills, the winter storage sentiment of traders has been stimulated, leading to the continuous shift of internal inventory to the market. According to Mysteel's research data, the total inventory of threaded steel (factory and social) on February 8th was 8.188 million tons, a decrease of 3.8387 million tons year-on-year in the Gregorian calendar and an increase of 184200 tons year-on-year in the lunar calendar. Table 2: Source of rebar inventory data: Shanghai Steel Union Steel Division 3. Export competitiveness is low and tends towards zero. According to customs data, China exported 5.67 million tons of steel in December 2017, an increase of 320000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 27.3%; From January to December, China's cumulative export of steel reached 75.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.5%. In December, the export quantity of steel bars in China was 6100 tons, a decrease of 6900 tons month on month and a decrease of 9800 tons year-on-year. The main reason is that the export price of Chinese rebar (FOB) is still significantly higher than the import price of Southeast Asian rebar (CFR) by nearly 100 US dollars per ton. The export of rebar is almost uncompetitive, and it is expected that rebar exports will tend to zero in the short term. Figure 4: China's construction steel export quantity data source: Shanghai Steel Union Steel Business Unit 4. The demand for real estate in the later stage is difficult to be optimistic, and the expectation for infrastructure investment is cautious. In 2017, the national real estate development investment was 1.09799 trillion yuan, a nominal increase of 7.0% over the previous year, with a growth rate 0.5 percentage points lower than that from January to November. Among them, residential investment was 7514.8 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4%, with the growth rate falling by 0.3 percentage points. Residential investment accounts for 68.4% of real estate development investment. In 2017, real estate development enterprises received 1.56053 trillion yuan in funds, an increase of 8.2% over the previous year, with a growth rate 0.5 percentage points higher than that from January to November. The cumulative investment growth rate of real estate development investment excluding land transaction prices is only 2.9%, and the difference from the annual nominal investment growth rate of 7% continues to widen.

Special reminder to traders to pay attention to some uncertain factors affecting the steel market situation in March, which are mainly reflected in several aspects: firstly, to pay attention to the changes in steel market inventory. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the accumulation speed and quantity of steel inventory will be much faster than last year. At present, the steel inventory in Guangzhou has significantly increased, and the inventory in the Guangzhou market is higher than the same period last year. It is reported that the planned delivery volume for February is around 1 million tons, and it is expected that the inventory in the Guangzhou market will reach a new high after the holiday. The national steel inventory has also significantly increased, especially the weekly increase of rebar inventory exceeding 1 million tons. In the past two weeks, the cumulative inventory growth rate in the building materials market has exceeded expectations, and the peak of social inventory after the year may exceed last year. However, by late March, after the inventory of building materials enters a turning point, due to the concentrated outbreak of demand this year, the inventory will also decrease quickly, which will have a significant impact on the construction steel market in March. The second is to pay attention to changes in the financial situation and their impact on the later steel market. In 2018, the domestic monetary environment was neutral and slightly tight, emphasizing the deleveraging of corporate finance. The situation of start-up funds for post holiday construction project investment will become the main factor affecting the intensity and pace of demand for construction steel, especially the availability of funds for PPP projects. At present, as the main funding provider for PPP projects, banks are cautious about adding new PPP businesses, and some banks have suspended adding new PPP projects. According to the person in charge of a large state-owned enterprise PPP project in Shanghai, 80% of the projects that have won bids but have not yet begun formal implementation have been suspended due to stricter supervision. To obtain bank funds now, at least one prerequisite must be met: the project must be selected for the Ministry of Finance's demonstration project library.

The market for raw materials such as ore and coke has also been weak in recent times, and their driving effect on finished products is at a relatively low level. In this situation, the price of finished products is naturally dragged down or suppressed to a certain extent. In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction in the building materials market still exists, but due to the high market price and reduced downstream demand, inventory may continue to increase slightly, which will have a certain negative impact on building materials prices. However, the short-term overall reduction and adjustment of futures positions may not receive strong support or fluctuate. So, overall, due to the downstream weakening and the time required for supply and demand adjustment, the prices of building materials and steel may experience a slight correction in the short term.